Section I. Overview of industry developments

Box-type substations (prefabricated substations) are factory-prefabricated compact power distribution equipment that integrates high-voltage switchgear, distribution transformers and low-voltage distribution devices. They are moisture-proof, fire-proof, fully enclosed, and movable. They can widely replace traditional civil construction power distribution rooms. They are suitable for wind power (land wind, sea wind), photovoltaic (land photovoltaic, sea photovoltaic), energy storage, mining and other scenarios. They can especially adapt to harsh environments such as high altitude, high anti-corrosion, and deep sea.

In terms of system composition:

• In the new energy wind power system, the box-type transformer is located between the wind turbine unit and the main transformer, including AC bus switch cabinet, dry/oil-immersed transformer, high-voltage switch and other components, and is responsible for voltage boosting and power distribution functions;

Figure 1 Composition of new energy wind and electricity systems

Data source: Public documentation

• In the new energy photovoltaic system, the box-type transformer (or box-inverter integrated machine) connects the inverter and the power grid, integrates inverters, distribution cabinets and other equipment to realize the voltage boost and grid connection of photovoltaic power.

Figure 2 Composition of new energy photovoltaic systems

Data source: Public documentation

The new energy large-capacity box-type substation is a special equipment developed for the characteristics of new energy sources such as wind energy and solar energy. It integrates voltage boosting, monitoring and protection, and is the core equipment of the new energy power system.

Section II. Current state of industry development

Due to the advantages of advanced technology, high degree of automation, and factory prefabrication, the output of box-type substations has grown steadily in recent years, with domestic output reaching 60,100 units in 2021. There are many companies in the industry, but there are differences in product focus areas. As the status of downstream fields such as new energy and new infrastructure improves, the market size continues to expand.

The rapid growth of the new energy industry around the world has given impetus to the industry:

• The share of total domestic renewables is over 50 per cent, while wind and photovoltaic power is 15 per cent of the total electricity available to society;

• Global renewables in 2023 reached 510 GW with 30 years of growth, with wind and photovoltaics leading the energy transition with cost advantages.

At the policy level, the country has intensively introduced supporting policies since 2023, covering photovoltaic land management, new power system construction, rural power grid upgrades, etc. (such as the "Blue Book on the Development of New Power Systems" and "Guiding Opinions on the High-Quality Development of Distribution Networks under the New Situation"). At the same time, deep-sea wind power has become an important trend. China's deep-sea wind power development potential reaches 500 million kW. Policies continue to promote the layout, and documents such as the "Management Measures for Deep-sea Wind Power" will further standardize development.

Figure 3

Source: Public documentation by sector

Section III Market size

The market size of the new high-capacity tank substations is mainly concentrated in the areas of focal-ray voltage and wind power, with the logic of measuring:Market size = (PVC + wind power PVC + BVC) x HCV。

(data for 2023)

• Photovoltaic field: Domestic market space is 15.984 billion yuan (newly installed centralized photovoltaic capacity is 120GW), global market size is 32.674 billion yuan (newly installed centralized photovoltaic capacity is 245.3GW);

• Wind power field: domestic market space is 11.992 billion yuan (newly installed capacity is 75.9GW), global market is 18.486 billion yuan (newly installed capacity is 117GW).

Large-capacity tank size change

In 2023, the global new energy large-capacity box-type substation market will reach 26.603 billion yuan, and the domestic market will reach 14.548 billion yuan. The penetration rate of large-capacity box-type substations is 52%. As new energy installed capacity continues to grow, the market size is expected to further expand.

Figure 4 Global and China Photovoltaic Added Machine Size in GW

Data sources: National Bureau of Statistics, CPIA, Solar Power urope, National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute, Solar Energy Industry Association, Polaris Power Grid, public information collection, Mindwise Consulting research department

Figure 5 Global and China wind power new loads, in GW

Data sources: National Bureau of Statistics, CPIA, Solar Power urope, National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute, Solar Energy Industry Association, Polaris Power Grid, public information collection, Mindwise Consulting research department